Where’s Eric Cantor?

In the GOP’s mad scramble to find a candidate to run against lose to Mark Warner in next year’s open seat Virginia Senate battle, several names keep popping up. The key names thus far are former governor Jim Gilmore, whose run for the presidency was a non-starter and didn’t garner much respect from the right or left based on his handling of Virginia, and Tom Davis, a supposedly centrist Republican whose 11th District has shifted to the left since he was swept into office on a conservative wave in 1994. Other names floated by the chattering class include such shocking racists as George Allen and Pat Buchanan.

Given the title of my blog and this post, I assume you know where I’m going with this. The far-right Virginia bloggers, and even some in the slightly more respectable traditional media, have put forth the idea of Cantor running to replace the retiring John Warner. It’s not entirely without merit, of course. The Senate would hold much greater opportunity for a larger platform for Cantor, and despite the lack of recent success would seem as a more likely jump-off point if Cantor were to try a run for the highest office.

I’ve given this a great deal of thought since Warner announced his retirement, and I believe this will not happen. Here’s why:

1. Even without picking up Virginia, the chances of Democrats expanding their lead in the Senate is very, very good. The chances of Republicans making the House closer or even retaking it look as good. For Cantor it’s better to lead in hell than to serve in heaven.
2. He lucked into a very high leadership position in the House very quickly. After only one term he became the Chief Deputy Majority Whip. He was even considered to replace DeLay as Majority Leader. Many say that if the Republicans retake the House, he stands a strong chance of becoming either Speaker or Majority Leader. That sort of meteoric rise is rare, and he would be trying to enter a body where tenure is much more highly prized and leadership positions much harder to come by.
3. He almost certainly can’t win, and he probably knows this. The state politics of Virginia have changed, plain and simple. It’s by no means a pure blue state (even though it would appear that way if you look at the state-wide results since 2001), but it’s certainly not red. And only a moderate Republican would stand a chance of gaining traction in the north, which is now the key to winning Virginia. Tom Davis would have a much better chance as he’s actually known in the north, and he’s still a long-shot.
4. He’s unknown to both the state and his district, and this serves him well. Like most of the Republicans in central Virginia (and everywhere?), the less voters know about them the better. He rode into a blood-red district on the bootheels of his former boss, Tom Bliley, and has never had to sell himself to any voter. Having his far-right record exposed in a major contested election will likely ruin him politically.
5. The House controls the purse, and for Cantor, who serves on the powerful Ways and Means Committee, that’s what it’s all about. He gets enormous contributions from the industries that benefit most from his ultra-conservatism, and therein lies his importance. They scratch his back, he scratches theirs with arguably the most pro-corporate voting record in congress. Plus, in a district that has never been competitive since its creation, he can funnel much of the PAC donations to at-risk Republicans. Win-win. And tied to this, Cantor can use his fiscal muscle to make damn sure that the rich pay as little in taxes as possible. (Check out this sort of pro-corporate mindset at work in these talking points against the carried interest tax by the Realtor Action Center.)
6. He’d actually have to campaign. Debate. Talk to people in Virginia. The kind of thing he’s not particularly good at. (Or maybe he is. I wouldn’t know. I’ve never seen him spend any time in the district.)

If you can think of any reasons why he’d even stand a chance or other reasons why he won’t run, I’d love to hear it.